www.fullermoney.com
I was put onto this website by a friend and I check its daily newsletter.
Mostly it’s about what those with money should do to either protect what they have or to get more. Sometimes it highlights a particular political situation, in terms of how it impacts on investments, and because of this it gives you a heads-up on possible future problems.
The latest issue has picked up on an article, by Gideon Rachman, in the Financial Times and the speculates on its significance.
I’ve copied the bulk of the email text:
When nations turn into hoarders – My thanks to a subscriber for this interesting column by Gideon Rachman for the Financial Times. Here is a section:
Chinese state-owned oil companies are engaging in ferocious bidding wars with western energy companies as they go after access to the same oil and gas fields, particularly in Africa. The pursuit of “energy independence” has become a bipartisan dream in the US, leading to a big increase in the production of biofuels made from grain which, perversely, has helped to tighten food prices. Middle Eastern investors, in particular the Saudis and the Gulf Arabs, have been leasing huge tracts of land in Africa, in an effort to grow food that is reserved for their own nations. In Europe, supporters of the protectionist Common Agricultural Policy are freshly emboldened.
This new global paranoia about food and energy security is driven by four factors: economics, demography, the environment and geopolitics.
Rapid economic growth in Asia has increased demand for food and energy and helped create destabilising spikes in prices. China’s demand for oil has more than doubled over the past decade. Just before the global financial crisis, prices of food and oil were surging, leading some big food producers to restrict exports. Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, claimed recently that there had been food riots in more than 60 countries over the last two years.
Today’s food and energy scares are sharpened when governments examine demographic and climate trends. The United Nations has estimated that the world’s population could exceed 9bn by 2050, compared with about 6.6bn now. This, it says, could necessitate an increase in food production of about 70 per cent from current levels.
Environmental worries add to the paranoia. Even if it now turns out that the Himalayan glaciers will be with us rather longer than the UN climate panel foresaw, politicians such as Britain’s Mr Benn regularly cite the threat that climate change will devastate some of the world’s most important agricultural land.
Finally, there are the geopolitical concerns. Worrying about sea lanes in the age of the internet sounds anachronistic. But the globalised trading system still relies on moving huge amounts of food and energy around the world by ship – and there are at least three choke-points that look vulnerable to disruption. The one that is getting all the attention at the moment is the Gulf of Aden, just south of the Suez canal, where a large multinational flotilla is fighting the threat from Somali pirates. The Strait of Hormuz, through which most Gulf oil needs to pass, could easily be blocked in the event of a conflict with Iran. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has fretted publicly about its “Malacca dilemma” – the fact that most of China’s imported oil from the Middle East has to pass through the Malacca strait, a narrow waterway between Indonesia and Malaysia. China is uncomfortably aware that it is ultimately reliant on the American navy to keep these vital sea lanes open – a fact that may be driving the Chinese effort to build up its own navy.
My view – Ever since the secular bull market in commodities became apparent in 2002-2003, Fullermoney has expressed concern over the inevitable competition for essential resources which are finite in supply, occasionally scarce, and often costly to produce. These concerns abated during the dramatic economic meltdown of 2008 but have begun to return with economic recovery.
Needless to say, when it comes to hoarding, countries with big current account surpluses are in a much stronger position than debtor nations.
We are right to be concerned about future supplies, not least regarding ‘rare earths’ frequently mentioned on this site which are increasingly required for many cutting-edge technologies.
Regarding the United Nations estimate that the world’s population could exceed 9bn by 2050, Fullermoney remains sceptical of all very long-term forecasts as these are based on little more than trend extrapolations. Secular trends can persist for a long time, but not in perpetuity.
I can think of two reasons – one nasty and one nice – why the global population is more likely to peak at around 7bn and quite possibly decline. 1) A larger population proves unsustainable so more people die before reaching breeding age and/or the stresses produce more conflicts which cull the global population. 2) As more people and particularly women become educated, and as more couples achieve material wealth, they often choose to raise fewer children as we have seen in most developed nations.
I am rooting for number 2 above, and although I do not expect to be around in 2050, good luck to those who live that long.
Schools in Wigan sitting on £9 million
January 31, 2010As a former long-standing school Governor, I’m aware of how a school’s finances can fluctuate and how a school needs to have the ability to hold on to its reserves.
A large school may have a budget of several millions but, because of LMS (part of the move towards privatising schools), a school is responsible for any unexpected bills that may arise, such as structural and/or fabric problems, suich as bad foundations, aging pipework or similar causes.
Bear in mind that schools are always built according to the lowest possible tender (more so, since PFI)and one has to expect sudden unexpected problems, which are usually expensive.
Pre-LMS the Local Authority could distribute a central fund to help out individual schools but this is no longer true. In fact I’d be very surprised if funds clawed back by the Local Authority were allowed to be re-distributed to other schools. I suspect it would go back to a generalised slush fund, at local or national level.
I would hope that any claw-back is kept to the absolute minimum, for various reasons.
First, a School may try to make savings to fund some capital project, but finds itself unable to make sufficient savings in one year to fund the possibly essential project.
Schools may decide to forgo something that may be of benefit, because of fears of clawback, and instead may decide to fritter it away on many. lesser beneficial projects, to avoid having their next year’s budget cut.
Schools may find themselves with a stable and experienced staff, which means that salary costs will be rising in the next few years. Clawback could mean having to try to lose important members of staff, disrupting departmental initiatives. They would have to buy in cheaper, younger staff.
In business, a company that lets funds sit idle is wasting a resource but a Company that shaves its resources too close to the bone can suddenly find the liquidators at its door.
Schools shouldn’t be viewed as businesses: They should be viewed as non-fiscally-profitable public assets, whose real profitability lies in enriching the nation, by educating its workforce. An over-eager clawback can cripple a school’s ability to perform this function.
Tags:education, LMS, PFI
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