We import more from EU than we export, so just on basic sums they need our trade more than we need theirs but the French will still buy our lamb and we’ll still buy their wine.
Then, again, we’ll probably sell them less lamb, because they’ll be slapping VAT on it. So rich, large farmer’s will have to sell more to us, at a lower price and Peta should be pleased that sheep won’t suffer long journey’s to French abattoir’s.
Wine should be cheaper, with no VAT, but I daresay The Chancellor will put another tax on “to help reduce boozing”.
There’ll be lots of swings and roundabouts, although overall, if sales stayed constant (Unlikely) , then theoretically, we the plebs, should find EU goods cheaper, because there’ll be no VAT.
Problem is, in reality, our Government will want to slap taxes on some imports, such as wine, and the EU won’t like that (hence lengthy trade negotiations). Also, the EU will put VAT on our exports to them, which may impact jobs. This complex. Consider Nissan making cars here for export to the continent. Their cars will be hit by VAT and sales may drop. Part of the EU deal was that Nissan use crap French components. This may no longer apply, meaning Nissan will regain its reputation and sales could rise.
There are lots of IF’s and BUT’s, which is why no-one can make an accurate prediction of what will happen.
Businesses with good management will make good decisions and lay out contingency plans during any transition. Bad ones will merely moan, give money to the Remain campaign and cross their finger’s.
Note also that we not only export more to non-EU than to EU but we also import less from non-EU.
We won’t be charging VAT on these imports, so they’ll be cheaper, so we may buy more from them, which could encourage them to buy more from us.
The only downside, I see here is where we buy things from the EU, add value and sell them on. They’ll carry some VAT, so will be pricier.
One other aspect of leaving the EU, is that we won’t have to accept subsidised tenders from their businesses, which should mean more jobs kept at home. E.g. trains not being built in Spain using Chinese steel.
It’s all complicated and for every swing, you can point at a roundabout but on the whole, those crude figures at the top of the page imply that we’ll be better off, or, at least, hardly any worse off than we are now.
And at least we know who our politicians are and where they live.